Aggregation and Proration in Forecasting

Conditions are determined under which (a) the sum of forecasts of sales in market segments is preferred to a forecast of the whole market and (b) a forecast of an individual market segment is preferred to a forecast obtained through proration of a forecast of the whole market. The comparisons in (a) and (b) are also applied to the problem of forecasting for several time periods into the future.

• 저널Management Science · 25(6) · 594–603
• 토픽Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Management Science and Operations Research
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.25.6.594
• 저자E. Shlifer, Ronald W. Wolff