A Decision-Process Perspective on Risk and Policy Analysis

Risk analysis and policy analysis can play important roles in facilitating the siting of potentially hazardous facilities if one recognizes the descriptive features of the decision process. The case of siting a liquified natural gas (LNG) facility in California illustrates the multi-party sequential nature of the process and the role that widely differing risk estimates play in fueling conflicts between stakeholders. Risk analysis does have a useful function in clarifying the nature of the potential losses, particularly if rules of evidence are instituted for evaluating different studies. Policy analysis can facilitate the negotiation process by the use of compensation to redistribute gains and losses between the different parties. Examples from case studies are presented to illustrate the challenges for risk analysis and policy analysis in the siting process.

• 저널Management Science · 30(4) · 475–485
• 토픽Risk and Safety Analysis · Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.30.4.475
• 저자Howard Kunreuther, Joanne Linnerooth, James W. Vaupel