A Comparison of Two Elicitation Methods for a Prior Distribution for a Binomial Parameter

This paper compares two methods of elicitation for the hyperparameters of the conjugate beta distribution for a binomial sampling model. The PM (posterior mode) method of Chaloner and Duncan appears to be more sensitive to elicitation errors than does a new method proposed here. This new method uses the device of imaginary results, due to I. J. Good (Good, I. J. 1967. A Bayesian significance test for multinomial distributions. JRSSB 29 399–431 (with discussion).). An explicit model for elicitation errors is used in a simulation.

• 저널Management Science · 34(6) · 784–790
• 토픽Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference · Statistics and Probability
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.34.6.784
• 저자Umesh Gavasakar