A Semi-Markov Model for Primary Health Care Manpower Supply Prediction

In this paper we develop a semi-Markov formulation for modelling transitions of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants between different settings and locations within a geographic area. The model predicts the supply of primary care providers over a planning horizon. We then compare the model predictions with estimates of future demand and need for primary care for a community. Statistical tests for validation and sensitivity analysis of the model are also performed to establish the appropriateness of the semi-Markov approach. With the likelihood of an oversupply of physicians during this decade, the model offers a useful tool for health planners, administrators, legislators, and regulators, for objective decision making.

• 저널Management Science · 33(2) · 149–160
• 토픽Healthcare Policy and Management · Economics and Econometrics
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.33.2.149
• 저자Vandan M. Trivedi, Ira Moscovice, Richard F. Bass, J Mathew Brooks