A Computer Simulation Model for the Control of Rabies in an Urban Area of Colombia

A simulation model is developed describing the transmission of canine rabies within and between 116 spatially distributed barrios (neighborhoods) in Cali, Colombia. The discrete time, dynamic model considers both discrete random variables (incubation and infective periods, appearance and movement of rabid dogs through the city, etc.) and deterministic variables (demographic components of barrio canine populations). Values for the input variables were acquired through field observations, other Colombian sources, and a review of the literature. Various canine vaccination strategies were tested in the model over a ten-year planning horizon for their cost-effectiveness with regard to the prevention of canine rabies. The model is recommended to the Pan American Health Organization to be used as an interactive gaming model to aid health system managers in Cali, Colombia and in other Latin American cities in scheduling the time and locations of vaccination teams in a more cost-effective manner.

• 저널Management Science · 22(4) · 411–421
• 토픽Rabies epidemiology and control · Virology
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.22.4.411
• 저자Ralph R. Frerichs, Juan Prawda