Note: Rule-Based Forecasting vs. Damped-Trend Exponential Smoothing

This paper evaluates the ex ante performance of rule-based time series forecasting systems proposed in earlier research. The author shows that comparable performance can be obtained with a simpler alternative, a damped-trend version of exponential smoothing fitted to minimize the Mean-Absolute-Deviation (MAD) criterion. The results suggest that the performance of rule-based systems would be improved through this alternative and that time series forecasters should consider MAD fits in model development.

• 저널Management Science · 45(8) · 1169–1176
• 토픽Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Management Science and Operations Research
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.45.8.1169
• 저자Everette S. Gardner