Intertemporal Choices Are Causally Influenced by Fluctuations in Visual Attention

Intertemporal discount rates vary widely across contexts and individuals. We propose that a sizable fraction of this variation results from differences in how visual attention is allocated to different features of the decision, such as earlier versus future rewards, and that fluctuations in attentional patterns alter choices. We first tested this hypothesis in an experiment in which participants chose between receiving smaller-sooner versus larger-later monetary rewards while their attention was recorded with eye tracking. We found that cross-participant variation in the allocation of attention explained between 40% and 53% of the individual differences in discounting and that cross-trial variation explained 16% of the participants’ propensity to choose the delayed option. To test causality, multiple additional experiments exogenously manipulated the allocation of visual attention and found that shifting attention to attributes that are relatively more attractive in a larger-later option increased patient decision making and altered purchasing behavior. Together, these results are consistent with the existence of a causal impact of visual attention on intertemporal choice and suggest that manipulating attention can have a sizeable impact for important managerial and public policy choice domains. This paper was accepted by Yuval Rottenstreich, decision analysis.

• 저널Management Science · 67(8) · 4961–4981
• 토픽Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · General Decision Sciences
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.2020.3732
• 저자Geoffrey Fisher