Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters

When two forecasters agree regarding the probability of an uncertain event, should a decision maker adopt that probability as his or her own? A decision maker who does so is said to act in accord with the unanimity principle. We examine a variety of Bayesian consensus models with respect to their conformance (or lack thereof) to the unanimity principle and a more general compromise principle. In an analysis of a large set of probability forecast data from meteorology, we show how well the various models, when fit to the data, reflect the empirical pattern of conformance to these principles.

• 저널Management Science · 36(7) · 767–779
• 토픽Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Management Science and Operations Research
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767
• 저자Robert T. Clemen, Robert L. Winkler