Optimal Bluffing Strategies in Poker

Bluffing in poker is examined as a problem in game theory. A very common situation occurs where the “kitty” contains K, player B has the apparent high hand, and player A has an apparent probability, P, of having a better hand than B, and considers a bluff. Under these conditions it can be shown that A should raise 1 unit with probability (1/(1 + K))(P/(1 − P)) · B, in turn, should call A's potential bluff with probability K/(1 + K). This says that in pot limit poker, if the potential bluffer has the appearance of having the winning hand with probability 0.25, he should bluff 1/2 · 1/3 = 1/6 of the time. The optimal strategy is to call a potential bluffing hand half the time.

• 저널Management Science · 17(12) · B–764
• 토픽Sports Analytics and Performance · Economics and Econometrics
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.17.12.b764
• 저자Lawrence Friedman