Note—A Re-Examination of the Results of Hogarth and Makridakis' “The Value of Decision Making in a Complex Environment: An Experimental Approach”

This note raises questions about two of the results of Hogarth and Makridakis (Hogarth, R. M., S. Makridakis. 1981. The value of decision making in a complex environment: An experimental approach. Management Sci. 27 93–107.) based on a lack of statistical support and inadequate consideration of the effect of team starting position on performance. Using bootstrapping simulation and regression analyses which specifically consider team starting position, we find (1) support for Hogarth and Makridakis' finding that a consistent strategy outperforms a random one, and (2) statistical disconfirmation for their second finding, that consistently managed arbitrary teams perform quite well in comparison with human management teams.

• 저널Management Science · 33(2) · 288–296
• 토픽Complex Systems and Decision Making · Management Science and Operations Research
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.33.2.288
• 저자William T. Ross