Bayesian Point Estimation and the PERT Scheduling of Stochastic Activities

Conventional PERT procedures frequently introduce undesirable and often indeterminant biases into the derived time statistics of large-scale complex projects. An alternative scheduling procedure BPERT is developed, employing an activity-based time estimation loss structure and a cost-minimization criterion. Bayesian point estimates are formulated for beta-distributed activity duration times minimizing the potential losses of misestimation. Viewed as certainty equivalents, these time estimates are then aggregated to yield a single project completion time. “Crashing” is introduced, and us implications for BPERT examined. An illustrative example contrasts PERT and BPERT.

• 저널Management Science · 22(9) · 938–948
• 토픽Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling · Management Science and Operations Research
• DOI10.1287/mnsc.22.9.938
• 저자Robert R. Britney